Is The July 2014 Stock Retreat The Most Predicted Correction Ever?

Now, Everyone Is In Correction Mode: July 2014 was a negative month for stocks after several weeks of gains but many market participants are now wondering whether equities are going to be in correction mode.  While it’s possible equities could retreat further, stocks haven’t really had much of a run in 2014 so much of[…]

Does The Stock Market Want An October 2013 U.S. Government Debt Default?

No – However……. The U.S. government has been shutdown for the past 2 weeks and the market has been exceptionally resilient. Two weeks ago I speculated the U.S. government shutdown would have little or no impact on market sentiment. The small cap exchange traded fund IWM wasn’t signaling a sharp decrease and tech stocks declined[…]

Does The Stock Market Want An October 2013 Government Shutdown?

Political uncertainty is reaching new unanticipated levels now that the government may shutdown next week.  The partisan bickering between the Republicans and Democrats looks irreconcilable and a “Contract With America”/hold hands moment seems highly unlikely.  Most market participants have focused on the possible Fed tapering in September 2013 and have shunned the effects of a[…]

May 2013 Jobs Data Could Show Fed Has No Reason To Signal Or Taper In 2013

Recent Fed Signaling May Be Too Early Depending On May 2013 Jobs Data: The stock market has been on a tear recently but Fed officials have been making comments that are getting market participants nervous.  This week’s ISM report, ADP payroll information and initial jobless claims data shows this approach may have been a bit[…]

Are Equities Getting Attractive Again If May 2013 Jobs Numbers Aren’t ‘Dismal’?

This could be a good buying opportunity if May 2013 unemployment falls: The stock market took a unified drubbing today but did the sellers overdo it?  Equities could be looking more attractive to long-term buyers in the short run and there is some evidence stocks are oversold.  Volatility has risen in the last few days[…]

May 2013 Best Since 2009 For Equities, Here’s 5 Reasons Why

Will June 2013 Be Better Than May? The stock market has been on a tear recently and May 2013 was profitable for bullish traders. Bonds took a drubbing as risk lovers gobbled up stocks and June 2013 could be another good month.  There are lots of reasons for the 2013 rally but here are a[…]

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Stocks End Inside-Out After Fed-Speak May 22, 2013

May 2013 Rally Fizzles, Is This A Buying Opportunity? The stock market lost ground yesterday after Fed speak hyped the equity buyers but sellers took over.  We anticipated a distribution day and traders changed sentiment with little economic data to end upward momentum. We expected an increase in volatility and the inside-outside movement yesterday was no[…]

May 2013 Stock Market Rally Takes No Break, Is It Too Late To Get In?

The Most Hated Stock Market Rally Just Got More Institutional Friends: Stocks jumped yesterday as more smart money stayed bullish and shorts were forced to spend money on ‘shovels’.  Some of the “hold your nose buying” we said would occur happened as big players stepped in and a parabolic move up took shorts out of the market.[…]

NASDAQ Hits 12 Year High As May 2013 Great Rotation Rally Continues

Tech takes lead in May 2013 Stock Market Rally: Stocks continue rallying with the NASDAQ hitting a 12 year high today as positive sentiment keeps lifting the major averages.  We were reticent to be more than neutral over the past week and not much happened until today. The U.S. stock market rally still has legs[…]

Dow Closes Above 15,000 For First Time Ever, Is It Time To Fade This Leg Of The Rally?

Sell In May And Go Away Isn’t Working – Yet? The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 15,000 for the first time ever as positive market sentiment kept shorts from stepping in. The rally in U.S. stocks has stopped large distribution days from occurring but it’s possible that institutions could pause in the near-term as[…]