Will Swing States Surprise In 2012 Based On The 2010 Midterm Elections??
After the second debate, Mitt Romney hasn’t lost much momentum according to the polls. Aside from some outlier polls, Mitt Romney has gained steadily since the first debate and although President Obama hasn’t lost significant ground, he hasn’t made up for the losses from a couple of weeks ago. Both campaigns are now focused on swing states such as Ohio and Florida to make sure they can get the votes needed by the electoral college to win. Most of the analyses we’ve seen has been focused on comparing the 2008 election where President Obama faced a less formidable opponent in Senator John McCain after 8 years of President Bush and have not considered the possible impact of the Republican 2010 election sweep.
Could the 2008 Electoral Map Change Significantly In 2012? Ask the Independent Voter
Anything’s possible in politics. The electoral map in 2010 changed with the Republicans gaining 63 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Independents helped sway the tide with over 82.5 million people voting. The Democratic Party lost severely making 2010 the largest seat change since 1948 and the most significant shift for any midterm election since the 1938. The independent voter (confused often with the so-called undecided voter) will be the key to this election and it will be important to see if President Obama still has large coattails.
The best way to measure President Obama’s strength in the coming weeks is to monitor how much he campaigns with others running for reelection and the usage of former President Bill Clinton to help get the Democratic vote out. Pictured Below: Results map for the 2010 United States House elections