Will Romney’s Momentum Continue After The VP Debate?
Probably.
Vice President Joe Biden lost the debate to Paul Ryan on style points as he continued to interrupt him and was laughing incessantly. Popular polls found Joe Biden behind and he failed at the same things President Obama did when not answering questions directly. Was there a double standard? President Barack Obama looked down and somewhat disengaged while Joe Biden was completely off game heckling while tickled. Historians will look at Joe Biden’s debate style and call it another turning point in the campaign after Romney’s victory in the first presidential debate in Denver.
Liberal sites and news media claimed Biden won the debate but many of them stated he beat President Obama in the debates for the Democratic Party nomination in 2008 where he received only 1 percent of the vote. Even Intrade numbers moved slightly in favor of Romney although we take caution at using them as predictors because they are not based on American betting and got the Obama-Clinton ‘trade’ wrong.
If Biden truly won, the Obama ticket should receive a bounce in the polls although it may be marginal and Romney’s momentum should stem. We don’t see this happening. Those who say the Democrats needed to rally the base are ignoring the fact that an incumbent president usually doesn’t need to rally their base in October – or use past presidents for help (which we predicted would occur in August 2010 before the Republicans handily swept the 2012 midterm elections).
We believe dips in stock prices at the end of the last week were a buying opportunity and we will be buying on dips as the stock market moves rangebound for longer term holds. If Romney wins, stocks will rally but if President Obama wins equity prices may also rise due to political certainty. The Bernanke put is still in effect and will put a floor on prices in the short run which keeps us bullish medium and long run. We are watching the financials, healthcare, coal related stocks, defense, tech and small caps.
