Will Stocks React To The Ryan vs. Biden Vice Presidential Debate?
Who will win tonight’s vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan?
- And what does it mean for stocks? Tonight’s debate will be very important for the Democratic Party but it will also be important for Republicans. Paul Ryan will need to stand his ground tonight and make sure that attempts on the part of Vice President Joe Biden to make him look inexperienced fail.
Vice President Joe Biden can’t be upstaged by the younger Paul Ryan for looking too affirmative and demonstrative. It’s a tricky play for Joe Biden because of the age difference and he cannot look angry against a younger opponent. Paul Ryan needs to look positive yet firm and both men have all a lot riding on this debate.
Paul Ryan must keep Romney’s upward momentum going while Joe Biden just needs to stop the hemorrhaging that has occurred from President Obama’s lackluster performance in the first debate. The key to tonight’s debate will be look and feel as well as style, but much less substance. Facts may be less important for independents who haven’t made up their minds and want to ‘like’ the VP.
This debate will look similar to Nixon versus Kennedy in 1960 which favored the candidate with youthful vigor. Paul Ryan must use skillful analysis of the past four years while Joe Biden must be able to find a way to make it clear his opponent isn’t ready for the job. We don’t expect much of a bounce from the VP debate tonight, however we do expect that if Paul Ryan has a good showing, stocks could go higher.
Mitt Romney has turned things around and if Paul Ryan can just maintain the momentum going into the debate today, the Republicans will be poised to have a strong finish. Joe Biden has age against him as well as the prior presidential debate so it will be much tougher for him to get his party back on track. We believe any anticipation that Paul Ryan has won or tied Biden in the debate will be good for stocks and we are paying less attention to Intrade which got the last – most interesting political contest between Obama and Clinton – wrong. The bettors on Intrade are from world markets who are less informed of what’s happening on the ground here. President Obama knows this well because according to Intrade, Hillary Clinton was supposed to be president. (More on this forthcoming)