September Jobs Numbers Vs. The 1st Presidential Debate: Which Will Have A Stronger Impact?
The jobs numbers won’t give President Obama that much of a lift -if any.
The September 2012 jobs numbers were released yesterday and they were perceived as suspicious by many Republicans as well as some in the media. ToryCapital.com made the exact prediction that the unemployment rate would fall to 7.8 percent and a debate about how the jobs numbers are calculated has begun since the timing of the news fell one month before the election. The unemployment rate dropped from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent even though only 114,000 new jobs were created which doesn’t keep up with monthly working population growth. Some political analysts thought the jobs number was good and this is evidence that expectations have been lowered to accept ‘new normal’ data as significant.
The September jobs numbers may not have a huge impact on the election due to President Obama’s recent debate debacle. Although his performance may not have been stellar, his body language made it seem like he wasn’t the winner. Romney is no debate on-time-wonder so expect him to continue to have a good showing. Polls are already showing that President Obama’s lead has narrowed significantly but we have argued that many polls overestimate Democratic expected turnout or suffer from serious statistical errors related to sampling and likelihood to vote. Three major polls released today, Gallup, Rasmussen and Reuters show President Obama’s lead over Mitt Romney narrowing but they do not fully take into account the jobs number or the debate performance yet because they use a moving day average.
Lower unemployment at 7.8 percent isn’t better than the 7.6 that lost for President Bush Sr., so it may not have much of a positive impact on the polling data or the election, especially coming off of a debate many feel the President lost. Romney needed to narrow the gap to raise funding and President Obama beat his own funding record this month by bringing in $181 million in September 2012. Our analysis shows Romney/Ryan is a more formidable ticket than McCain/Palin and the race continues to be close even after a bad couple of weeks for Romney. Independent voters will choose who wins this election and a moderate/conservative Romney may have a slight edge as the Democrats angrily use the term ‘liar’ excessively.