Polls Overwhelmingly Favor Obama, Is That A Good Thing?
The polls right now are favoring President Barack Obama in a large way but some of them could be off and are inflating predictions. Many of the recent polling we’ve seen use estimates that assume Democrats will come out to vote in full force. These polls show Democrats voting by much larger numbers than in 2008.
There are pros and cons for each candidate from exaggerated polls that show President Obama ahead by a wide margin. In the end, if President Obama pulls out the victory it will be interesting to see if he wins by the margins suggested by many polls right now. President Obama’s lead in the polls is set to have a demoralizing affect on Republicans but they are largely innocuous to polls and tend to vote for their candidate regardless.
Romney voters are more likely to hit the voting booth even if polls already assume he has lost. President Obama could lose some supporters who think he is going to win based on polling and the large margin of victory assumed by most polls could do less to demoralize Republicans than keep some Democrats at home.
Romney could benefit from assumptions President Obama has already won and the Obama campaign knows from the Hillary Clinton experience that polls assuming a candidate is likely to win can backfire. It’s how he became president. Romney can gain from exaggerated predictions that assume Democrats coming out to vote based on 2008 numbers but this depends on a few key demographics. We are looking more carefully at 2010 races and the possible impact on President Obama’s coattails this year.
Here are three demographics that could adversely be impacted by polls stating President Obama is handily beating Mitt Romney.
- The African-American vote: President Obama is extremely likely to win this demographic but may lose a couple of percentage points this election.
- The youth vote: President Obama could lose some young voters compared to 2008.
- The white male rural vote: President Obama may lose some white male voters compared to 2008 and needs a high turnout again.
This doesn’t mean Romney will capture these voters but if some move over to him and others assume he isn’t going to win, President Obama may lose some of the constituents he had before. In short, both parties need to get out the vote regardless of the polls.
